Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Pick – 5/28/2025

The Texas Rangers will host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 28, 2025, in a matchup of teams struggling to find their rhythm this season. Both teams are currently below .500, with the Rangers at 27-29 and the Blue Jays at 26-28. In yesterday's game, the Blue Jays fell short against the Rangers, adding pressure as they look to rebound in this critical series.

On the mound, Texas is projected to start Tyler Mahle, who has been a bright spot for the Rangers. Mahle boasts a solid 5-2 record and an impressive 1.80 ERA this season, ranking him as the 86th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 4.18 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate, and he projects to allow 2.5 earned runs over 5.8 innings today. Mahle’s low strikeout rate could be a concern against a Blue Jays lineup that struggles to rack up strikeouts.

Eric Lauer will take the hill for Toronto, and while his 3.31 ERA looks good on the surface, his underlying metrics tell a different story. Lauer's xFIP stands at 4.42, indicating potential struggles ahead. He projects to pitch 5.0 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs, which won't inspire much confidence against a Rangers offense that ranks 27th in MLB.

Despite the Rangers' offensive woes, they have shown some power, ranking 12th in home runs. With Mahle's strong performance this season, the Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -155, suggesting they may have the edge in this contest. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a potentially competitive matchup, but both teams will need to find their offensive rhythm to capitalize.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Because flyball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over flyball bats, Eric Lauer and his 39.1% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in today's outing squaring off against 2 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme flyball batters like Anthony Santander usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Tyler Mahle.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.5% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Tyler Mahle has a reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of squaring off against 6 same-handed hitters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Adolis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen grades out as the worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 44 games (+16.50 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 away games (+7.05 Units / 25% ROI)
• Nathan Lukes has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.85 Units / 20% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.53, Texas Rangers 4.87

• Date: May 28, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eric Lauer - Blue Jays
  • Tyler Mahle - Rangers

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