Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick & Preview – 9/19/2024

• Date: September 19, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Kumar Rocker - Rangers

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers gear up to host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 19, 2024, at Globe Life Field, both teams find themselves out of playoff contention, battling for pride in this American League matchup. The Rangers, with a season record of 73-79, have been struggling, and their 25th-ranked offense continues to search for consistency. The Blue Jays, not faring much better at 72-80, have a middling offense, ranking 15th in the league. This game marks the third in their series, with both teams eager to gain any advantage.

On the mound, the Rangers are looking to Kumar Rocker, who is projected as the #24 best starting pitcher in the league. Despite having started only one game this year, Rocker has impressed with a 2.25 ERA. However, his 4.42 FIP suggests potential regression, hinting at some luck in his early success. On the other side, Kevin Gausman will start for the Blue Jays. Gausman, who has a 4.02 ERA through 29 starts, has been steady but shows signs of overperforming, as indicated by his 4.99 xERA.

Rocker faces a Blue Jays lineup that doesn’t strike out much, ranking 6th in the league for the least strikeouts, potentially minimizing Rocker's strikeout prowess. Meanwhile, Gausman will have the task of containing a struggling Rangers offense, which ranks 25th in the MLB.

The Rangers' bullpen, ranked 5th, could be a decisive factor, especially against the Blue Jays' 23rd-ranked bullpen. With betting markets offering even odds, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rangers a 58% chance of winning, suggesting potential value in backing Texas. As both teams vie for a morale-boosting win, the Rangers seem to have a slight edge on paper.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to league average, Kevin Gausman has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 9.6 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.1-mph average to last year's 92.1-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Given his large platoon split, Kumar Rocker should be in good shape going up against 7 bats in the projected lineup of the same handedness in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (23.6) may lead us to conclude that Wyatt Langford has been unlucky this year with his 14.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 72 games at home (+15.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+8.10 Units / 42% ROI)
• Kevin Gausman has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 48% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 3.71 vs Texas Rangers 4.09

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.