Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/22/2024

• Date: September 22, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Shane Baz - Rays

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As we head into the final stretch of the 2024 MLB season, the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays find themselves well outside of playoff contention. The Rays, with a record of 77-78, have had an average season, while the Blue Jays, at 73-82, have struggled to find consistency, marking a below-average year for them.

In their last meeting on September 21, the Rays edged out the Blue Jays in a tight 3-2 victory. This game will mark the third and final matchup of their current series at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay will send Shane Baz to the mound, a right-hander with a 3.21 ERA that suggests strong performance, although his 4.49 xFIP indicates he may have been benefiting from a bit of luck. Baz projects to give up 2.4 earned runs over five innings, which is considered average. On the other side, Toronto counters with Chris Bassitt, who carries a 4.16 ERA and a record of 10-13. Bassitt's projections call for 5.7 innings and 2.4 earned runs, with his performance in his last start limited to just four innings.

Toronto's offense ranks 15th in MLB, showing elements of mediocrity, whereas Tampa Bay's lineup struggles, sitting 28th overall. Despite these rankings, the Rays’ bullpen is a bright spot, ranked 3rd, contrasting sharply with the Blue Jays' 25th-ranked bullpen. On the offensive side, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a standout for Toronto, boasting a .324 batting average and a .950 OPS, while Jonathan Aranda has been Tampa Bay's hottest hitter over the last week.

The Rays enter today's contest as the favorites with a moneyline of -140, implying a 56% win probability. However, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Blue Jays have a slightly higher win probability at 51%, suggesting there may be value in betting on Toronto as an underdog.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 6.5 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Ernie Clement's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 85.2-mph seasonal average has dropped to 79.1-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Shane Baz will have the handedness advantage over 6 opposing hitters today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.319) implies that Jose Siri has had bad variance on his side this year with his .278 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 89 of their last 148 games (+25.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 60 away games (+7.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+6.05 Units / 32% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.3 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.96

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.