Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Picks 9/21/2024

• Date: September 21, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays prepare for the second game of their series on September 21, 2024, both teams find themselves out of contention in the American League East. The Rays, sitting at 76-78, are having an average season, while the Blue Jays, at 73-81, are enduring a below-average campaign.

In their last matchup on September 20, the Rays edged out the Blue Jays with a narrow 1-0 victory. Taj Bradley, who is projected to start for the Rays, will be looking to build on his above-average season. Ranked as the 74th best starting pitcher in MLB, Bradley has shown potential despite his 6-11 win/loss record. His 4.39 ERA is somewhat misleading, as his 3.66 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could perform better going forward. However, his task won't be easy against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 15th in batting average and is known for making contact, which could neutralize Bradley's high strikeout rate.

Yariel Rodriguez will take the mound for Toronto. While his 4.29 ERA appears average, the projections indicate he's a below-average pitcher. His high flyball rate could work in his favor against a Rays offense that ranks 27th in home runs. However, with the Rays' impressive bullpen, ranked 3rd in MLB, Rodriguez will need to keep the game close before handing it over to a struggling Blue Jays bullpen, which is ranked 26th.

Offensively, the Rays will rely on Jose Siri, who has been their best hitter over the past week, boasting a .400 batting average. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continues to be a force, with a .322 batting average and 30 home runs this season. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Rays have a slight edge with a 52% win probability compared to the Blue Jays' 48%. With both teams projected to score around four runs, fans can expect another tightly contested battle at Tropicana Field.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

George Springer has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .302 figure is considerably lower than his .356 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

In today's game, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.6% rate (88th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of all starting pitchers, Taj Bradley's fastball velocity of 95.7 mph ranks in the 90th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Josh Lowe is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Collectively, Tampa Bay Rays bats have not performed well when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to result the most in base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking worst in the league.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 49 games (+75.95 Units / 155% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 51 away games (+11.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Taj Bradley has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+7.30 Units / 49% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.13 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.1

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