Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 5/24/2025

On May 24, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the second game of their series. Both teams are struggling to find consistency, with the Rays sitting at 24-26 and the Blue Jays at 25-25. The Rays' recent performance has been particularly disappointing, as they rank 24th in MLB in offense and have struggled to generate runs, while the Blue Jays have been more middle-of-the-pack, sitting at 17th overall.

Shane Baz is projected to take the mound for Tampa Bay. Despite a mediocre 3-3 record and a troubling ERA of 5.33, Baz's advanced stats suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 4.07 xFIP indicates potential for improved performance. However, he faces a Blue Jays lineup that has been steady, though lacking in power, ranking 23rd in home runs.

On the other side, Jose Berrios takes the hill for Toronto. His 1-1 record and ERA of 4.19 may not scream dominance, but projections indicate that he could be due for a downturn, as his 5.11 xERA suggests he's been fortunate thus far. With a solid bullpen ranking 5th in MLB, the Blue Jays may feel confident if the game remains close late.

The Game Total is set at a high 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup. Tampa Bay’s offense needs to find a way to capitalize on scoring opportunities, especially against a pitcher with Berrios's recent struggles. The projected high implied total of 4.86 runs for the Rays reflects this urgency. Ultimately, this matchup presents a chance for the Rays to turn their season around, but they must enhance their offensive output to do so.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios has added a slider to his pitch mix this year and has worked it in 28.1% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Anthony Santander's average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 89.9-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 77.7-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.7% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Shane Baz's 96-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 90th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Yandy Diaz usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jose Berrios.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The 7% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays makes them the #28 group of hitters in the majors this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 39 games (+10.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.40 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jose Berrios has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.55 Units / 22% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.99, Tampa Bay Rays 4.94

• Date: May 24, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Shane Baz - Rays

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