Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 5/23/2025

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on May 23, 2025, both teams find themselves hovering around the .500 mark in the American League East. The Rays sit at 23-26, while the Blue Jays are slightly ahead at 25-24. This matchup becomes crucial for both teams as they seek to improve their standings.

Tampa Bay's batting ranks 24th in the league, and they have not been able to capitalize on scoring opportunities, managing just 4.85 runs per game according to current betting lines. The Blue Jays, ranked 17th in offensive production, present a more balanced attack, though they lag in home runs, ranking 23rd.

On the mound, the Rays will send out Drew Rasmussen, who, despite a subpar 2-4 record, boasts an impressive ERA of 2.93. He has been a reliable arm for the Rays, currently ranked as the 25th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. However, signs suggest he may have been a bit lucky this season, as his 3.83 FIP indicates potential regression. Rasmussen projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs on average, but his ability to limit damage will be tested against a Blue Jays lineup that can score in bursts.

For Toronto, Eric Lauer will take the mound. His 1-0 record and solid ERA of 2.25 are impressive, but he has only pitched in two games this season. Lauer's projections indicate he may struggle, expected to pitch only 4.6 innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs.

With the Rays favored in this contest, they hope to leverage Rasmussen's skill against a Blue Jays offense that has potential but has not consistently delivered. As both teams aim for improvement, this game presents a pivotal opportunity for the Rays to gain ground in the standings.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

In his last start, Eric Lauer was on point and allowed 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

In the last 7 days, George Springer's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 18.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.6% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Drew Rasmussen has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 12.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Chandler Simpson's average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 83.4-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 77.5-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Tampa Bay Rays bats jointly grade out 28th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.50 Units / 40% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.80 Units / 53% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.48, Tampa Bay Rays 4.96

• Date: May 23, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eric Lauer - Blue Jays
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays

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