Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 9/16/2025
The Toronto Blue Jays will take on the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday night in an AL East matchup. The Jays come into this game on a hot streak, having won five games in a row. They will look to get a step closer to the AL East title with a victory on the road against a desperate Rays team. Here, I break down this matchup and make my Blue Jays vs Rays prediction for Tuesday’s game.
Our Blue Jays vs Rays Pick
- Pick: Blue Jays moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 16, 7:35 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Jose Berrios vs Ryan Pepiot
- Stadium: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- The Blue Jays are playing some of their best baseball of the season at the best possible time. They are on a five-game winning streak and have created some separation between themselves and their competition in the AL East.
- Tampa is running out of time to catch up in the AL Wild Card standings. They are 8.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot and their margin for error is virtually gone as they need a near-perfect final stretch to steal a playoff berth.
Pitching outlook
Jose Berrios and Ryan Pepiot will face off on the mound in this contest. Berrios is 9-5 with a 3.99 ERA on the year. Berrios tends to pitch to contact more than Pepiot, which has the potential to land him in trouble at times, but that style has worked for the Blue Jays starter this year. Pepiot enters this game at 11-10 with a 3.59 ERA. He averages nearly a strikeout per inning and is better at missing bats than his counterpart in this game.
Recent team streaks
- Toronto has won five games in a row going into tonight.
- Tampa has lost two straight games and four of their last five.
Best Player Props
| Player | Market | Suggested Line |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero, TB | Home Run | To hit a HR |
| Jose Berrios, TOR | Strikeouts | Under 4.5 |
| Ryan Pepiot, TB | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| George Springer, TOR | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Yandy Díaz, TB | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Tampa leads the season series 5-2 against the Blue Jays.
- Tampa had won four straight over Toronto before the Jays won Monday’s matchup.
Blue Jays vs Rays Model Projection
Score Projection: Blue Jays 5 – Rays 3
Win Probability: Blue Jays 56%, Rays 44%
Final Thoughts
The Toronto Blue Jays are playing some excellent baseball late in the regular season. I expect that to continue tonight, as the Blue Jays should get their sixth win in a row. Look for Berrios to have a strong start and for the Toronto bullpen to hold onto the lead down the stretch, as Toronto on the moneyline is my best bet for this AL East game.
