Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 5/25/2025

On May 25, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Toronto Blue Jays at George M. Steinbrenner Field in a critical American League East matchup. Both teams find themselves with identical records of 25-26, reflecting average seasons thus far. The stakes are high as they look to gain momentum in a tightly contested division, especially after the Rays defeated the Blue Jays in their last game.

The Rays are projected to start Ryan Pepiot, who has struggled with a 2-5 record and a 3.99 ERA this season. While his ERA suggests some effectiveness, advanced metrics indicate he may have been fortunate, as his 4.72 xERA suggests a potential decline in performance. Pepiot's low strikeout rate of 19.9% could be a concern against a Blue Jays lineup that has the 2nd least strikeouts in MLB, potentially giving Toronto an advantage.

Opposing him will be Chris Bassitt, who boasts a solid 4-2 record and an impressive 2.83 ERA. Bassitt's performance has been consistently better than Pepiot's, and with his ability to work deep into games, he could be a significant factor in this matchup. The projections show that Bassitt is likely to allow fewer runs than Pepiot, which could tip the balance in favor of the Blue Jays.

Offensively, the Rays rank 24th in MLB, struggling to find consistent production, particularly in power numbers, ranking 23rd in home runs. In contrast, the Blue Jays present a slightly better outlook, sitting 19th overall but facing their own challenges in power, ranking 26th in homers. With both teams fighting for a foothold in the division, this matchup promises to be a competitive affair, especially with the Rays holding a slight edge in the betting markets with a moneyline of -115.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Because flyball hitters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Chris Bassitt (42.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 3 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Anthony Santander is penciled in 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (57.4% vs. 49.4% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ben Rortvedt's average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 86.2-mph mark last season has fallen off to 81.4-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be best to expect better results for the Tampa Bay Rays offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.60 Units / 32% ROI)
• Ryan Pepiot has hit the Strikeouts Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.40 Units / 23% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.19, Tampa Bay Rays 4.51

• Date: May 25, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

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