Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 6/9/2025

On June 9, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Toronto Blue Jays in an intriguing interleague matchup at Busch Stadium. Both teams are closely matched in the standings, with the Cardinals holding a record of 36-29 and the Blue Jays at 35-30. The Cardinals have had a solid season, while the Blue Jays are performing above average.

St. Louis is projected to start Andre Pallante, who has struggled this season with a 4-3 record and a below-average ERA of 4.91. However, his 3.72 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky, suggesting potential for improvement. Pallante's low strikeout rate (15.5 K%) could be a concern against a Blue Jays offense that excels at making contact, as they rank 1st in the league for the fewest strikeouts.

On the other side, Toronto will counter with Jose Berrios, who has a respectable ERA of 3.67. Despite this, his peripherals suggest he may have been a bit fortunate this season. Berrios has also been inconsistent, with a 2-2 record over 13 starts. Both pitchers are right-handed, and the game is projected to be a close contest, with a Game Total set at 8.5 runs.

The Cardinals' offense ranks 10th overall in MLB and 5th in team batting average, which bodes well against Berrios, whose recent performance has not been as dominant as his ERA suggests. With both teams evenly matched, the Cardinals may have the edge based on their offensive capabilities, particularly if Pallante can navigate the Blue Jays' lineup effectively.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios's 91.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.7-mph drop off from last year's 93.5-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Typically, hitters like Nathan Lukes who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andre Pallante.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante projects for an average of 17.8 outs in today's outing, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.5% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+10.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 60% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.62, St. Louis Cardinals 4.48

• Date: June 9, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

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