Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 6/11/2025

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 11, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup between two teams having solid seasons. The Cardinals, currently sitting at 36-31, are above average this year, while the Blue Jays boast a slightly better record of 37-30. This game marks the third in the series, with the Cardinals looking to bounce back after a narrow 10-9 loss to the Blue Jays just a day prior.

On the mound, the Cardinals are projected to start Matthew Liberatore, who has had a mixed season thus far with a 3-5 record and a respectable 3.82 ERA. However, his advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 3.04 FIP indicates he could perform better moving forward. Liberatore's last outing was a struggle, surrendering 7 earned runs in just 4 innings, raising questions about his form.

Conversely, the Blue Jays will send Eric Lauer to the hill. Lauer has had a strong season, evidenced by his excellent 2.08 ERA, but his 4.37 xFIP suggests that he may be due for a regression. He pitched only 2 innings in his last start, allowing no earned runs, but the abbreviated outing raises concerns about his stamina.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 12th in MLB, with a strong batting average of .270, placing them 4th overall. However, their power numbers are lacking, sitting 23rd in home runs. The Blue Jays, while also averaging in the middle of the pack for runs scored, have a slightly better ranking at 11th overall.

With the Cardinals' high implied team total of 4.50 runs for this game, they may have the edge, especially if Liberatore can find his rhythm. Betting markets view this matchup as close, but the Cardinals could capitalize on their home-field advantage and offensive prowess to secure a victory.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Eric Lauer to have a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

When it comes to his home runs, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had bad variance on his side this year. His 16.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 27.0.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Toronto Blue Jays have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jonatan Clase, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

With 8 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Matthew Liberatore will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+8.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games (+12.60 Units / 29% ROI)
• Ernie Clement has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.88, St. Louis Cardinals 4.71

• Date: June 11, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eric Lauer - Blue Jays
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals

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