Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 5/11/2025

On May 11, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Toronto Blue Jays at T-Mobile Park for the third game of their series. Seattle is currently enjoying a strong season with a 22-16 record, while Toronto sits at 19-20, struggling to find consistency. The Mariners offense ranks as the 6th best in MLB, bolstered by their impressive power numbers, including a 4th ranking in home runs. In contrast, the Blue Jays’ offense ranks 22nd, particularly struggling to hit for power, sitting at 28th in home runs.

Seattle's Bryce Miller is set to take the mound, coming off a challenging season with a 2-3 record and an ERA of 4.15. While Miller is rated as the 81st best starting pitcher in MLB, his 4.70 SIERA suggests he might not be as effective as his ERA indicates. He projects to pitch 6.0 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, though he has been less effective in terms of strikeouts, projected to strike out only 4.6 batters.

On the other side, Toronto's Jose Urena is having a rough year, with a single start resulting in a dreadful ERA of 8.59. Despite this, his 5.44 xFIP indicates he has been a bit unlucky. Urena projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, and struggles with strikeouts, projected to only strike out 3.3 batters.

The Mariners come into this game as betting favorites with a moneyline of -160, reflecting their strong offense and Urena's struggles. The game total is set at an average 8.0 runs, but with the Mariners' power against Urena's flyball tendencies, expect fireworks in Seattle.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Jose Urena (45.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in Seattle's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Typically, hitters like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Bryce Miller.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Toronto Blue Jays (18.6 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone group of batters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's curveball rate has increased by 7% from last season to this one (4.4% to 11.4%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

J.P. Crawford is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Seattle Mariners batters collectively grade out 4th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 10.6% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games (+12.20 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
• Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 53% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.07, Seattle Mariners 4.75

• Date: May 11, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Urena - Blue Jays
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

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