Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/19/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
• Run Line: Blue Jays 1.5 -205, Padres -1.5 175
• Money Line: Blue Jays -105, Padres -115
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 49%
• San Diego Padres - 51%

Projected Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 48.87%
• San Diego Padres - 51.13%

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Game Preview & Prediction

The San Diego Padres are set to take on the Toronto Blue Jays in an Interleague matchup at Petco Park on April 19, 2024. The Padres, with a season record of 11-10, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Blue Jays hold a 10-9 record and are also having an above-average season.

On the mound, the Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Matt Waldron, who has started three games this year. Waldron holds a 0-1 win/loss record with a 3.14 ERA, which is considered great. However, his 4.14 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky so far and may experience a decline in performance going forward. Despite this, Waldron is ranked as the #221 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Yariel Rodriguez, who has started one game this year. Rodriguez boasts an excellent 2.45 ERA, but his peripheral indicators, such as his 2.99 SIERA, 6.27 xERA, and 5.16 FIP, suggest that he has been fortunate this season and may regress in future performances. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Rodriguez is considered a bad pitcher by MLB standards.

The Padres offense ranks as the 6th best in MLB this season, showcasing their underlying talent. However, their team batting average ranks 20th, while their team home runs and stolen bases rank 10th and 7th, respectively. On the other hand, the Blue Jays offense is considered the 18th best in MLB, with their team batting average ranking 5th, and their team home runs and stolen bases ranking 15th and 19th, respectively.

In terms of bullpen strength, both teams have solid rankings. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider the Padres bullpen as the 7th best in MLB, while the Blue Jays bullpen is ranked 6th.

Based on the current odds, the Padres have a higher implied team total of 4.30 runs compared to the Blue Jays' 4.20 runs. However, the betting markets anticipate a close game, with the Padres holding a slight edge with a -115 moneyline and an implied win probability of 51%, while the Blue Jays have a -105 moneyline and a 49% implied win probability.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Among every team playing today, the 4th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Davis Schneider has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Collectively, Toronto Blue Jays hitters have done well when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (between 23° and 34°), ranking 7th-best in the league.

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Matt Waldron will wring up 4.2 strikeouts in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Luis Campusano's quickness has dropped off this season. His 25.75 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.98 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen ranks as the 8th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 75 of their last 141 games (+14.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 113 games (+11.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.45 Units / 21% ROI)

Blue Jays vs Padres Prediction: Blue Jays 4.5 - Padres 4.37

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