Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 8/18/2025
The game of the day in Major League Baseball on Monday comes between the Toronto Blue Jays and Pittsburgh Pirates. That contest features the first-place Jays taking on arguably the best pitcher in baseball in Paul Skenes. Before the first game of this interleague series, I break down the matchup and bring you my Blue Jays vs Pirates prediction below.
Our Blue Jays vs Pirates Pick
- Pick: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date & Time: Monday, August 18, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs Paul Skenes (PIT)
- Stadium: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
- Broadcast: SportsNet PT and SNET
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
The Blue Jays will send Kevin Gausman to the mound on Monday. He’s shown consistency with an 8-9 record and a 3.79 ERA. Gausman will be regarded as the second-best starting pitcher in this contest. But he is more than capable of hanging with Skenes when at his best.
The Pirates will give the ball to Paul Skenes. He will be expected to rebound after allowing four runs over four innings in his last outing. Skenes has a sterling 2.13 ERA but a lack of run support has led to him holding a losing record.
Key Players
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .300 this season to lead the Blue Jays. He also leads them with 21 home runs.
- The entire Pittsburgh offense is their key player in this game. Pittsburgh has to find a way to score runs for Skenes if they want to avoid wasting another of his brilliant outings.
Recent team streaks
- The Blue Jays had a three-game winning streak snapped when they lost to the Texas Rangers on Sunday.
- Pittsburgh has lost two games in a row and four of their last five.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | Over 0.5 RBI |
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | Under 7.5 Strikeouts |
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first meeting between the Blue Jays and Pirates this season.
- This three-game series is the only set of games these teams will play against each other in 2025.
- Toronto has covered the runline 58.4% of the time this season. That is the third-best runline win percentage in baseball.
Blue Jays vs Pirates Model Projection
Score Projection: Blue Jays 4 – Pirates 3
Win Probability: Toronto 52%, Pittsburgh 48%
Final Thoughts
Paul Skenes is going to pitch well for the Pirates in this game. The question is whether or not that will be enough to help the Pirates pick up a win. I don’t think that it will be, as the Jays should get a solid start out of Kevin Gausman as well. Once this game comes down to the bullpens, I expect Toronto’s offense to come to life and for the Jays to win this game on the road.
