Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 6/15/2025

On June 15, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Citizens Bank Park for the third game of their interleague series. The Phillies are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 41-29, while the Blue Jays sit at 38-32, having an above-average year. In their previous matchup, the Phillies emerged victorious, showcasing their potent offense.

The Phillies will send Zack Wheeler to the mound, who has been nothing short of elite this season. With a 6-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.85, Wheeler ranks as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. He projects to pitch 6.3 innings while allowing just 2.1 earned runs today, and his high strikeout rate (32.0 K%) could challenge the Blue Jays, who have the lowest strikeout rate in the league. However, Wheeler’s tendency to allow 5.1 hits and 1.3 walks per game could create opportunities for the Blue Jays.

On the other hand, Toronto will counter with Jose Berrios, who has struggled this season with a 2-2 record and a 3.38 ERA. Despite a decent ERA, Berrios's projections indicate he may underperform, as his xFIP sits at 4.24, suggesting he has been fortunate so far. He is expected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, but his below-average strikeout rate (4.6 K) may hinder his effectiveness against the Phillies' 8th ranked offense.

The betting lines favor the Phillies significantly, with a moneyline of -180, reflecting their strong form and home advantage. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup. With both teams featuring capable offenses, the Phillies will look to capitalize on Wheeler's elite pitching to extend their winning streak.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

This season, Jose Berrios has introduced a new pitch to his arsenal (a slider), throwing it on 26.5% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Alejandro Kirk has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 93.5-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Toronto Blue Jays (20.3 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of all SPs, Zack Wheeler's fastball spin rate of 2457 rpm is in the 90th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In terms of his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has been lucky this year. His 42.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 29.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Philadelphia Phillies bats as a unit rank among the elite in the majors this year (10th-) when it comes to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 55 games (+9.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.99 Units / 24% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+14.45 Units / 29% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 3.72, Philadelphia Phillies 4.32

• Date: June 15, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

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