Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/3/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On August 3, 2024, the New York Yankees will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium for the second game of their series. The Yankees continue to shine with a 65-45 record, reflecting a strong season, while the Blue Jays sit at 50-59, grappling with a below-average performance. Despite their struggles, the Blue Jays hope to turn things around, but they face a challenging matchup against a potent Yankees offense ranked 1st in MLB.

In their last encounter, the Blue Jays used their offensive firepower to flip the script on the Yankees, with New York looking to get even with them in this contest. The Yankees are projected to start Carlos Rodon, who has demonstrated solid form this season. Rodon holds a Win/Loss record of 11-7 and an average ERA of 4.34, but with a more optimistic 3.83 SIERA, which suggests he might have been unlucky in some outings. His ability to strike out 6.0 batters per game could prove critical against a Blue Jays lineup ranking 27th in home runs.

Toronto counters with Jose Berrios, who comes in with a record of 9-8 and a decent ERA of 3.93. However, the projections indicate he might regress, as his xFIP of 4.54 suggests he’s been a bit fortunate this year. Berrios averages 4.4 strikeouts per game, which isn't ideal against a robust Yankees batting order that has racked up 197 home runs, second best in MLB.

With a Game Total of 9.0 runs, the Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -180, reflecting an implied team total of 5.10 runs. This matchup presents a strong opportunity for the Yankees to capitalize on their offensive prowess against a Blue Jays team struggling to find consistency.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Tallying 17.8 outs per GS this year on average, Jose Berrios places him the 90th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Typically, hitters like Daulton Varsho who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Carlos Rodon.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Toronto Blue Jays (20 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy group of hitters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Carlos Rodon has gone to his non-fastballs 11.1% more often this season (50.7%) than he did last year (39.6%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Anthony Volpe is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 10.8% Barrel% of the New York Yankees makes them the #1 team in baseball this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 54 games (+22.20 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 43 games (+19.90 Units / 42% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 18 games at home (+8.20 Units / 39% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.57 vs New York Yankees 6

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