Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction – 9/7/2025
The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees will face off in an AL East matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Blue Jays come into this game with a three-game lead over New York in the AL East standings. A win for the Yankees would move them a game closer, but Toronto will do everything in its power to increase their lead coming out of this weekend. Before the action begins in the Bronx, continue reading to get my Blue Jays vs Yankees prediction.
Our Blue Jays vs Yankees Pick
- Pick: Under 8.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Head-to-Head: Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 7, 2025, 1:35 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer vs Max Fried
- Stadium: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- Broadcast: YES, Sportsnet, MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- Division pressure: Toronto has controlled the season series to this point but New York could move to within two games of first place with a win here.
- Max Fried has stacked quality outings again after a midseason lull. He is limiting damage and leaning on elite command to keep the ball in the yard.
- Max Scherzer continues to show flashes of the pitcher that used to be one of the best in all of baseball. Scherzer will look to put together another dominant start here to help his team in this key division game.
Pitching outlook
- Max Fried, Yankees: Fried is 15-5 and has a 2.98 ERA. His strong recent form has been highlighted by longer outings and reduced hard contact. He has kept barrels down and handled right-handed bats with a full mix consisting of a fastball, curve, slider, and change.
- Max Scherzer, Blue Jays: Scherzer is 5-2 with a 4.11 ERA this year. But it feels like he is getting better as this season progresses. Another strong start from Scherzer in this game would be huge for Toronto’s success.
Recent team streaks
- The Yankees have won three of their last five games as they try to clinch a Wild Card playoff spot in the coming weeks.
- Toronto saw a three-game winning streak end with Saturday’s loss to the Yankees.
Best Player Props
| Prop | Player |
|---|---|
| 1+ Home run | Aaron Judge |
| Over 6.5 Strikeouts | Max Scherzer |
| Over 6.5 Strikeouts | Max Fried |
| Under 1.5 Total Bases | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. |
| Under 1.5 Total Bases | Giancarlo Stanton |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Toronto leads their season series against the Yankees 8-4.
- This is the final time the Yankees and Blue Jays will play each other in the regular season this year.
- Both games in this current series have stayed under 8.5 runs.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Model Projection
Score Projection: Blue Jays 3 – Yankees 4
Win Probability: Blue Jays 44%, Yankees 56%
Final Thoughts
I am expecting a close, low-scoring game from Yankee Stadium today. Both starting pitchers are great at hanging zeroes on the board. We should see both Scherzer and Fried do just that for a good chunk of this game and the under feels like a great choice in a game that could help to decide who ends up winning the AL East later this month.
