Toronto Blue Jays VS New York Yankees Betting Pick & Preview – 04/07/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Overview

• Date: April 7, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays
  • Luis Gil - Yankees
• Run Line: Blue Jays 1.5 -155, Yankees -1.5 135
• Money Line: Blue Jays 130, Yankees -150
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 42%
• New York Yankees - 58%

Projected Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 38.55%
• New York Yankees - 61.45%

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Game Preview & Prediction

On April 7, 2024, the New York Yankees will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, with a record of 7-2, are having a great season so far, while the Blue Jays, with a record of 4-5, are struggling. As an American League East matchup, this game holds importance for both teams.

The Yankees will have Luis Gil on the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has shown promise this season. In his one start, Gil has showcased an impressive ERA of 1.93. However, his 4.61 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could face challenges going forward. On the other side, the Blue Jays will start Bowden Francis, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled with an ERA of 11.81. Despite his struggles, his 2.67 xFIP indicates that he may be due for some positive regression.

The Yankees' offense ranks as the 10th best in MLB this season, showcasing their underlying talent. However, their team batting average ranks 29th, which is concerning. In contrast, the Blue Jays have an average offense, ranked 15th in MLB, but boast a great team batting average, ranking 5th in the league.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Yankees have the 3rd best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Blue Jays rank 14th. This could give the Yankees an advantage in the later innings of the game.

In terms of the overall matchup, the Yankees seem to have the upper hand. They have a projected win probability of 58% compared to the Blue Jays' 42%, according to the current moneyline odds. The Yankees also have a higher implied team total of 4.62 runs, while the Blue Jays' implied team total stands at 3.88 runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Bowden Francis in the 79th percentile among all starters in the league.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Daulton Varsho is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among every team in action today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 129 games (+10.19 Units / 7% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+3.95 Units / 44% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays 4.02 vs New York Yankees 4.87

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