Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets Prediction – 4/5/2025

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on April 5, 2025, at Citi Field, both teams are looking to build momentum. The Mets, currently 4-3 this season, are enjoying a solid start, while the Blue Jays sit at 5-3, riding high on their strong performance. In their last outing, the Mets won 5-0 and will look for another victory in this Interleague matchup.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Griffin Canning for the Mets and Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays. Canning, while ranked 230th among starting pitchers in MLB, has a respectable ERA of 3.18 this season. However, his 3.92 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate, and he projects to allow 2.5 earned runs over 5.6 innings today. This raises concerns, especially given that the Mets' offense has faced struggles in run production and power.

On the other hand, Chris Bassitt has been impressive, boasting a 1.50 ERA and an average projection of 2.6 earned runs over 5.7 innings. While he is considered an average pitcher, he has shown the ability to keep opponents at bay. The Blue Jays' offense, ranked 17th in MLB, is powered by a strong batting average of .300, which could exploit the Mets' pitching weaknesses.

With the Mets' bullpen ranked 24th and the Blue Jays' at 15th, the late innings could prove pivotal. The Mets enter the game with a moneyline of -130, suggesting betting markets view this as a close contest. Given the projections and current form, the Mets may need to rely heavily on their best hitter, who has been hot lately, to generate runs against a solid Blue Jays lineup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt has had some very good luck with his strikeouts since the start of last season, posting an 8.90 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.13 — a 0.77 K/9 difference.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Over the last week, Alan Roden's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 98.8-mph over the course of the season to 103.8-mph lately.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 17.2% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Toronto's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Brett Baty, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 112 games (+20.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Luis Torrens has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 73% ROI)

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Griffin Canning - Mets

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