Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction & Picks 9/1/2024

• Date: September 1, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins host the Toronto Blue Jays at Target Field on September 1, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their standing in a tightly contested American League matchup. The Twins currently sit at 73-62, showcasing a solid season that puts them in a favorable position, while the Blue Jays struggle at 67-71, reflecting an average performance. The Twins are coming off a dismal showing, having lost 15-0 to the Blue Jays in their last outing.

The Twins will send Bailey Ober to the mound, who has been a reliable option this season with a 12-6 record and a 4.06 ERA. Ober ranks as the 36th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his effectiveness, albeit with some bad luck reflected in his 3.52 xERA. He projects to pitch around 5.2 innings today, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs while facing a Blue Jays offense that ranks 27th in home runs and struggles to capitalize on flyballs, which could play into Ober's favor.

On the other side, Yariel Rodriguez will take the hill for Toronto. With a disappointing 1-6 record and a 4.82 ERA, Rodriguez has not been able to find his rhythm, ranking poorly among his peers. He projects for just 4.4 innings of work, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and his high walk rate could spell trouble against a Twins lineup that ranks 6th in MLB in offensive power.

Despite the Twins' high implied team total of 4.89 runs, the projections suggest they can capitalize on Rodriguez’s inconsistencies. As the Twins aim to build on their success, they look poised to take advantage of the Blue Jays' struggles, making this a crucial game for both sides.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Minnesota Twins have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Yariel Rodriguez in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, bats like Daulton Varsho who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Bailey Ober.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's game, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.3% rate (82nd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Out of all the teams today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Minnesota Twins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Edouard Julien is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Minnesota Twins have been the 8th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 75 games (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 35 away games (+9.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+11.35 Units / 26% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.55 vs Minnesota Twins 4.79

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