Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 6/8/2025

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 8, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with solid records, sitting at 34-30 and 35-29 respectively. The Twins, while currently above average, face a crucial series as they aim to gain ground in the competitive American League. In their most recent outing, the Twins narrowly lost to the Blue Jays by a score of 5-4, a game that showcased the offensive capabilities of both squads.

The Twins are projected to start Joe Ryan, who ranks as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Ryan has been impressive this season with a 6-2 record and an excellent ERA of 2.91. However, his xFIP of 3.68 indicates he may have benefited from some good luck this year. Despite his high strikeout rate of 28.4%, Ryan faces a Blue Jays offense that has the lowest strikeout rate in MLB, which could neutralize his biggest strength.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will counter with Bowden Francis, who has struggled this season, posting a 2-7 record and a troubling ERA of 5.84. Although his xFIP suggests some bad luck, his last start was disastrous, allowing 6 earned runs in just 2 innings. This puts pressure on Francis to perform better against a Twins lineup that, while average overall, has the potential to capitalize on his weaknesses.

With the Twins' bullpen ranked 9th and the Blue Jays' at 5th, the late innings could be pivotal. The current Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive game. Given the Twins' status as favorites with a moneyline of -175, they have a strong chance to bounce back after their recent loss and take the series.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis's fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this season (91.8 mph) below where it was last season (92.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.2% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Matt Wallner has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 101.7-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 92.8-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen ranks as the 7th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+10.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 25% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.41, Minnesota Twins 4.71

• Date: June 8, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays
  • Joe Ryan - Twins

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.