Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Picks 6/12/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: June 12, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on June 12, 2024, in the third game of their interleague series. The Brewers, having a strong season with a 39-28 record, will look to further solidify their playoff aspirations. The Blue Jays, sitting at 33-34, are having an average season and are currently not contending for a playoff spot.

In terms of pitching, the Brewers are projected to start Tobias Myers, a right-hander who has struggled this season. Myers, ranked as the 262nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has an ERA of 4.15 but a much higher FIP of 5.13, indicating he has been somewhat fortunate in limiting runs. Myers has been inconsistent, with a Win/Loss record of 2-2 across seven starts. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Myers to pitch just 4.9 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.2 hits, and 1.5 walks on average.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will counter with Chris Bassitt, also a right-hander, who has been solid with a 3.80 ERA and a 6-6 Win/Loss record over his 13 starts. Ranked as the 65th best starting pitcher in MLB, Bassitt is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, 5.5 hits, and 2.0 walks on average.

Offensively, the Brewers boast the 4th best lineup in MLB, leading to a team batting average ranked 3rd and ranking 3rd in stolen bases. In contrast, the Blue Jays have a middling offense, ranking 19th overall, 20th in batting average, and 26th in home runs. This disparity could prove to be a significant factor, especially with the Brewers' strong bullpen, ranked 6th, compared to the Blue Jays' average bullpen, ranked 15th.

Justin Turner has been a bright spot for Toronto recently, hitting .421 with an OPS of 1.026 over the last week. Milwaukee's Jackson Chourio, meanwhile, has also been hot, posting a .286 batting average and a .946 OPS in his last five games.

With both teams evenly matched in the betting markets, the Brewers' impressive season and offensive firepower give them a slight edge. Look for Milwaukee to capitalize on their home-field advantage and continue their strong campaign against a struggling Blue Jays lineup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

George Springer has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+7.80 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 24 games (+7.65 Units / 26% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.04 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.7

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