Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/13/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: August 13, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Carson Fulmer - Angels

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on August 13, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling this season. The Angels sit at 52-67, while the Blue Jays are just above them at 55-64. Both teams are not in contention for their respective divisions, but the matchup still holds significance as the Angels look to turn around their disappointing campaign.

In their most recent outings, the Angels were defeated by the Blue Jays in the previous game of this series, which may add extra motivation for the home team to bounce back. The Angels will send Carson Fulmer to the mound, a right-hander who has had a challenging season, posting a Win/Loss record of 0-2 and ranking as the 298th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Fulmer has started 6 games and has an ERA of 3.74, but projections suggest he could struggle today, averaging just 4.4 innings and allowing 2.5 earned runs along with 4.6 hits.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will counter with Kevin Gausman, who is having a far more successful season with a 10-8 record and ranking as the 86th best starting pitcher. Gausman has been more reliable, projecting to pitch about 5.7 innings with an average of 2.9 earned runs allowed. However, both pitchers struggle with hits and walks, which could lead to an unpredictable game.

Offensively, the Angels rank 23rd in the league, while the Blue Jays are just slightly better at 21st. The Angels have been buoyed recently by Zach Neto, who has been their standout hitter over the past week, boasting a .370 batting average and driving in 10 RBIs. Conversely, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has also been productive for the Blue Jays, hitting .381 over his last week.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Angels are currently underdogs at +125, while the Blue Jays are favored at -145. Given the projections and current performances, this matchup should be closely watched, as both teams continue to look for momentum in a lackluster season.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (59 compared to 50.8% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

George Springer's average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 87.2-mph seasonal average has fallen to 79.8-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Toronto Blue Jays (19.4 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone team of hitters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Over his last 3 games started, Carson Fulmer has experienced a significant decline in his fastball spin rate: from 2251 rpm over the entire season to 2190 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brandon Drury's true offensive talent to be a .301, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .095 disparity between that figure and his actual .206 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 77 games (+9.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 42 games (+18.95 Units / 41% ROI)
• Daulton Varsho has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 14 games (+7.60 Units / 54% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.31 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.69

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