Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick & Preview – 8/12/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: August 12, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays
  • Davis Daniel - Angels

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays on August 12, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling this season. The Angels hold a record of 52-66, while the Blue Jays are slightly ahead at 54-64. This American League matchup is particularly significant as it marks the first game of the series between these two teams, and both clubs are looking to gain momentum amid disappointing campaigns.

Davis Daniel, projected to start for Los Angeles, has had a tough season with a Win/Loss record of 1-3 and a troubling ERA of 6.04. Although he ranks as the 173rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, there are glimmers of hope. His xFIP of 3.92 suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky and may perform better going forward. Daniel is projected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allowing around 2.9 earned runs.

Bowden Francis, taking the mound for Toronto, is also struggling. Despite a Win/Loss record of 4-3 and an ERA of 5.44, the projections indicate that he could improve as well. His pitching is expected to cover about 5.0 innings, with projections of 2.8 earned runs on average. Both pitchers have high hit and walk projections, which could lead to potential scoring opportunities.

Recent performance highlights for both offenses show that the Angels rank 24th in overall offensive production, with their best hitter, Zach Neto, recently showcasing impressive form. Meanwhile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a key contributor for the Blue Jays. Given the similar moneyline of -110 for both teams, this game should be tightly contested, with both teams needing a win to build some much-needed confidence in the remainder of the season. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, suggesting an expectation for offensive action on both sides.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis's 2380-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 77th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20.5% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Davis Daniel will post an average of 4.2 strikeouts in this outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Zach Neto has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 94.7-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 76 games (+11.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 60 games (+18.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jo Adell has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.95 Units / 34% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.05 vs Los Angeles Angels 5.08

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