Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Picks 4/22/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Overview

• Date: April 22, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays
  • Brady Singer - Royals
• Run Line: Blue Jays -1.5 155, Royals 1.5 -175
• Money Line: Blue Jays -110, Royals -110
• Total: 9

Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 50%
• Kansas City Royals - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 48.85%
• Kansas City Royals - 51.15%

Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Game Preview & Prediction

On April 22, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium. This American League matchup promises an exciting game between the home team Royals and the visiting Blue Jays.

The Royals have been having a great season so far, with a record of 13-9. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brady Singer, who has been performing well with a 2-0 win/loss record and an excellent ERA of 1.54. However, his 3.36 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances. Singer is expected to pitch around 5.8 innings and allow an average of 2.6 earned runs.

The Blue Jays, with a record of 12-10, are having an above-average season. They will counter with left-handed pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, who has a 1-1 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 2.08. However, both his 2.88 SIERA and 2.64 xERA indicate that he may have been fortunate and could see a decline in his performance going forward. Kikuchi is projected to pitch around 5.1 innings and allow an average of 2.6 earned runs.

The Royals offense ranks as the 12th best in MLB, while the Blue Jays offense ranks 15th. The Royals have a strong stolen base game, ranking 4th in the league, but their home run production is lacking, ranking 26th. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have a solid batting average, ranking 5th, but their stolen base and home run rankings are average.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Blue Jays have the 7th best bullpen in MLB, while the Royals rank 18th. This could give the Blue Jays an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Considering the pitching matchup, the Royals' lack of power may work in their favor against Kikuchi, who is a high-groundball pitcher. However, the Blue Jays' stronger offense and bullpen could give them an edge in this game.

Overall, this game promises an intriguing battle between two teams with above-average seasons. The outcome will likely come down to the performance of the starting pitchers and the effectiveness of the bullpens. Baseball fans can expect an exciting matchup at Kauffman Stadium.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense grades out as the 11th-weakest among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Batters such as Justin Turner with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brady Singer who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Compared to the average pitcher, Brady Singer has been given more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording an extra 3.7 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Nelson Velazquez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

In today's game, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.4% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 games at home (+12.97 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 123 games (+8.49 Units / 6% ROI)
• Nelson Velazquez has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.10 Units / 30% ROI)

Blue Jays vs Royals Prediction: Blue Jays 4.85 - Royals 4.71

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