The Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals will face off in the final game of their weekend series from Kansas City. This contest carries more weight than most games for the Blue Jays. Toronto leads the AL East and is in a strong position to clinch a playoff spot, but enters this contest riding a four-game losing streak and is trying to hold onto their division lead. Kansas City (78-77) is technically alive in the postseason picture, but more likely this is a chance to play spoiler for them. Continue reading to get my Blue Jays vs Royals prediction for today’s game.
Our Blue Jays vs Royals Pick
- Pick: Royals Moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 2:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Trey Yesavage (Blue Jays) vs Michael Wacha (Royals)
- Stadium: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Broadcast: FDSKC and SNET
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Trey Yesavage is making his second start this season and looked sharp in his only outing. He carries a 1.80 ERA after that appearance and kept hitters off-balance. While a small sample size is a risk, his statistical indicators suggest he has the stuff to keep this game close. Kansas City’s Michael Wacha brings veteran experience and durability, but has been inconsistent. His overall ERA sits at 3.79, his WHIP at 1.22, and he has given up enough runs that Kansas City will need offensive support to win.
Recent team streaks
- The Blue Jays have lost four in a row. During that span, their offense has lagged with only three runs scored in those last four games. They need to put some runs on the board to stop the bleeding.
- Kansas City has won two games in a row and three of their last four. They will try to stay hot in this contest.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Over 0.5 home runs |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Over 1.5 total bases |
| Michael Wacha | Over 5.5 strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Royals have a 4-1 lead in the season series against the Blue Jays.
- This game is the final matchup between these teams in the 2025 regular season.
- The Royals have outscored the Blue Jays 22-2 over the first two games of this three-game set.
Blue Jays vs Royals Model Projection
Score Projection: Royals 5 – Blue Jays 4
Win Probability: Toronto Blue Jays 48%, Kansas City Royals 52%
Final Thoughts
This game should be very close and could go either way, but I think that Kansas City will complete a sweep of the Jays with a win here. The Blue Jays are struggling to put runs on the board and that could mean problems against a pitcher with a high ceiling in Wacha. Look for things to continue to tighten up for the Jays in the AL East race after the Royals win this contest in Kansas City.
