Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros Pick – 4/22/2025

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros will host the Toronto Blue Jays on April 22, 2025, in a game that holds significance for both teams as they look to find consistency this season. The Astros sit at a .500 record of 11-11, a performance that has disappointed fans, especially with their offense ranking 25th in MLB. In contrast, the Blue Jays are slightly ahead at 12-11, showcasing a better offensive output with a 4th-best team batting average, yet they struggle with power, ranking 29th in home runs.

In yesterday's matchup, the Blue Jays lost in a lopsided game with the Astros. Today, the Astros will turn to Ronel Blanco, who has struggled early in the season with a subpar ERA of 6.48. While Blanco projects to pitch an average of 5.5 innings and allow around 2.9 earned runs, his ability to limit hits has been questionable, as he’s predicted to allow 5.2 hits today. Facing him will be Chris Bassitt, who has been exceptional with a minuscule ERA of 0.77 and an xFIP of 2.25, suggesting he has performed well above expectations thus far.

This matchup favors the Blue Jays, particularly given Blanco's high flyball rate against a lineup that has not capitalized on power this season. The projections indicate that Bassitt will likely pitch longer and more effectively, making it harder for the Astros' struggling offense to mount a comeback. Betting markets have pegged both teams at a moneyline of -110, reflecting the anticipated tight contest. However, with the Blue Jays’ recent form and pitching edge, they could prove to be the more favorable bet in this encounter.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

As a result of his large platoon split, Chris Bassitt will hold the advantage squaring off against 8 hitters in the projected offense who bat from the same side in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, hitters like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Ronel Blanco.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco has recorded a 12.9% Swinging Strike rate since the start of last season, grading out in the 84th percentile.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

Jeremy Pena has made significant gains with his Barrel%, upping his 5.5% rate last season to 11.1% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Houston Astros offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 22 games (+3.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+4.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.95 Units / 24% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.75, Houston Astros 4.32

• Date: April 22, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

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