Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction – 6/25/2025

As the Cleveland Guardians take on the Toronto Blue Jays at Progressive Field on June 25, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this series. After Toronto took the first game, today's matchup promises to be a pivotal one for both clubs, who are both hovering around playoff contention but need to turn things around quickly. The Guardians sit at 39-38, while the Blue Jays, at 42-36, have shown a bit more upside this season.

Projected starting pitchers Gavin Williams for the Guardians and Max Scherzer for the Blue Jays bring unique strengths to the mound. Williams, ranked 79th among MLB starters, has been above average overall and projects to allow 2.5 earned runs today. However, his tendency to give up hits and walks could prove costly, as he averages 5.7 hits and 1.7 walks allowed in his outings. Meanwhile, Scherzer, despite ranking 65th in the league, is also battling through a rough patch, projecting to pitch only 4.9 innings today—a concerning trend for the veteran ace.

Interestingly, both teams have an average implied total of 4.00 runs for today's game, hinting at a close battle. With both teams eager to assert dominance and make a statement, bettors should keep an eye on how the Guardians' home field advantage might sway the outcome in their favor, especially considering that this is virtually a pick 'em game.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Cleveland Guardians have 8 hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Max Scherzer today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, batters like Nathan Lukes who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Gavin Williams.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Bo Bichette has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Kyle Manzardo has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 10.2% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Cleveland Guardians have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Johnathan Rodriguez, Bo Naylor, Nolan Jones).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Bo Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.50 Units / 61% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.34, Cleveland Guardians 4.15

• Date: June 25, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Scherzer - Blue Jays
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

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