Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 6/26/2025

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 26, 2025, both teams are looking to assert themselves in a tightly contested matchup. The Guardians are currently in a moderate position with a record of 40-38, while the Blue Jays sit slightly ahead at 42-37. After a thrilling game yesterday, in which the Guardians edged out the Blue Jays 5-4, momentum may be on the Guardians' side.

Projected starters Tanner Bibee and Kevin Gausman present an intriguing contrast on the mound. Bibee, ranked as the 62nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, has recorded a 3.86 ERA this season but has a concerning 4.60 FIP, indicating he may have been benefiting from favorable circumstances. He projected to give up 6.2 hits today, which could be a concern against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 12th overall in offensive performance.

On the other hand, Gausman, despite being a right-handed pitcher, has faced challenges this year. His 4.60 ERA is considered average, and his recent start was alarming—he allowed seven earned runs in just four innings against a different opponent. While Gausman’s projections indicate he may improve, he still faces a tough task against a Guardians offense that has struggled, ranking 25th in MLB in both batting average and overall offensive capabilities.

With the Guardians boasting a solid bullpen ranked 10th in MLB, they may have the edge in late-game scenarios. The Guardians' moneyline is currently set at -125, reflecting a belief that they could pull off a victory in this close contest. The total runs for the game is set at 8.0, suggesting a potentially competitive and high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Because flyball batters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Kevin Gausman (35.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Andres Gimenez's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 86.4-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 79.5-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Toronto Blue Jays batters collectively rank near the top of baseball this year (5th-) when assessing their 89.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee's cut-fastball usage has decreased by 5.2% from last year to this one (24.4% to 19.2%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Toronto's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Daniel Schneemann, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+9.79 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+8.05 Units / 24% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.73, Cleveland Guardians 4.54

• Date: June 26, 2025
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

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