Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick & Preview – 8/18/2024

• Date: August 18, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on August 18, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons. The Cubs sit at 61-63, while the Blue Jays are struggling at 57-66. The stakes are particularly high for the Cubs, who are looking to build momentum after edging out the Blue Jays 3-2 in their last encounter just a day prior.

The matchup features Shota Imanaga for the Cubs, who has been a standout performer this season with a 9-2 record and a solid 3.16 ERA. Imanaga is ranked as the 56th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his effectiveness on the mound. His flyball-heavy approach (44% FB%) should play well against a Blue Jays offense that has struggled to generate power, ranking 27th in home runs this season. Imanaga's ability to keep runs to a minimum will be crucial, especially against a Blue Jays lineup that has not shown much firepower.

On the other side, Bowden Francis is slated to start for the Blue Jays. Despite a respectable 4.92 ERA, Francis has had his ups and downs this year. He recently pitched a strong game, going 7 innings with just 1 earned run against the Cubs, but overall, he has been considered one of the weaker pitchers in the league. The projections indicate that the Cubs may struggle to draw walks against Francis, who boasts a low walk rate of 6.7%.

The Cubs' offense ranks 19th in MLB, but they have the advantage of Ian Happ, their best hitter, who has been performing well lately. The projections suggest that the Cubs could score around 4.04 runs, while the Blue Jays are expected to struggle, projected to score just 3.52 runs. With the Cubs favored at -180 on the moneyline, they look to capitalize on their recent success and exploit the Blue Jays' offensive woes.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Out of all starters, Bowden Francis's fastball spin rate of 2381 rpm ranks in the 77th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ernie Clement has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Toronto Blue Jays have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Addison Barger, Davis Schneider, Brian Serven).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Tallying 17.5 outs per GS this year on average, Shota Imanaga places in the 85th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Cody Bellinger's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 87.3-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 81.3-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 119 games (+7.95 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 76 games (+18.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 28 games (+8.50 Units / 27% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 3.04 vs Chicago Cubs 3.75

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.