Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Picks 8/29/2024

• Date: August 29, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on August 29, 2024, they find themselves in a competitive American League East matchup. The Red Sox, sitting at 69-64, are enjoying an above-average season and are currently in a better position than the Blue Jays, who have struggled with a 65-70 record, marking their performance as below average. The stakes are high, especially since the Red Sox won their last game against the Blue Jays by a score of 3-0, showcasing their strong pitching and offensive capabilities.

Kutter Crawford is projected to take the mound for the Red Sox. Ranking as the 72nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Crawford has had a challenging season with an 8-11 record and a 4.19 ERA. Interestingly, he pitched well in his last outing, allowing only 2 earned runs over 5 innings. Facing him will be Bowden Francis, who, despite a decent 4.02 ERA, has struggled in terms of overall performance and is rated poorly by the same metrics.

The Red Sox offense ranks 4th best in MLB, fueled by standout performances from Jarren Duran, who has been exceptional lately. Over the past week, Duran has recorded a .320 batting average and an impressive 1.193 OPS, further solidifying his status as the Red Sox's best hitter this season. In contrast, the Blue Jays’ offense, ranked 15th overall, has been lackluster, particularly in power categories, ranking 27th in home runs.

With the Red Sox favored by betting lines indicating a moneyline of -145 and an implied team total of 4.58 runs, the projections lean toward a strong showing from Boston. The combined strengths of their batting lineup and Kutter Crawford’s ability to limit damage against a struggling Blue Jays offense could set the stage for another victory at Fenway Park.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis was rolling in his previous GS and compiled 12 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Typically, batters like Daulton Varsho who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Kutter Crawford.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue in MLB today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Connor Wong has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 49 games (+8.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 40 away games (+12.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• Triston Casas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+9.30 Units / 28% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.34 vs Boston Red Sox 4.82

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