Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on August 27, 2024, it's crucial to note the significance of this matchup in the American League East. Both teams enter the game with average records—Boston at 67-64 and Toronto at 65-68—suggesting a tightly contested ballgame ahead. The Blue Jays beat the Red Sox twice on Monday and will look to build on those results with another win at Fenway Park here.

Projected starters for the game are Cooper Criswell for the Red Sox and Yariel Rodriguez for the Blue Jays. Criswell has been inconsistent but demonstrates flashes of potential, evidenced by his 5-4 record and a 4.41 ERA. He ranks as the 184th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he has struggled against tougher lineups. However, his xERA of 3.91 suggests he could be due for a turnaround, especially against a Blue Jays offense that has been underwhelming this season, ranking 15th overall but 20th in batting average and 27th in home runs.

Rodriguez, who has a 1-5 record and a 4.33 ERA, has also been below average and is projected to pitch just 4.4 innings on average. The Red Sox's offense, which has recorded an impressive 5.11 runs per game projection, should capitalize on Rodriguez's vulnerabilities.

Boston's bullpen ranks 17th in the league, providing some reassurance as they face a Blue Jays bullpen sitting at 24th. Given these factors and the projections indicating Boston's strong likelihood to score, they appear to have the upper hand in this matchup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

With 6 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Yariel Rodriguez meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, George Springer has been unlucky this year. His .298 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .354.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Among all SPs, Cooper Criswell's fastball velocity of 88.5 mph ranks in the 2nd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Connor Wong has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O'Neill, Connor Wong, Wilyer Abreu).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games (+7.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 22 away games (+11.95 Units / 37% ROI)
• Spencer Horwitz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games (+14.30 Units / 95% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.12 vs Boston Red Sox 5.1

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