Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 6/29/2025

On June 29, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Toronto Blue Jays in what promises to be an interesting matchup at Fenway Park. The Red Sox enter this game with all of the momentum, having beaten the Blue Jays 15-1 on Saturday, setting the stage for a critical third game in this series.

The Boston Red Sox currently hold a record of 41-43, finding themselves just below the .500 mark in an average season. The Red Sox offense ranks as the 10th best in MLB, showcasing their potential to score runs. However, they will face a challenge against Toronto's solid lineup. The Blue Jays, who sit at 44-38, are performing above average this year and boast the 3rd best batting average amongst all teams, indicating their proficiency at the plate.

Walker Buehler is projected to start for the Red Sox. Though he possesses a 5-5 record, his 6.29 ERA this season is concerning, placing him among the worst starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats. Despite an underwhelming strikeout rate of 19.4%, Buehler projects to pitch 5.7 innings, with projections indicating 3.1 earned runs, 6.4 hits, and 1.7 walks allowed on average. This may be a tough outing for him, especially against a Toronto lineup that rarely strikes out.

On the other side, Eric Lauer, though also ranked poorly, has shown glimpse of effectiveness with a stellar 2.21 ERA. He projects to pitch for about 4.6 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs. The projections suggest a less stable outing might be ahead, given that Lauer has only started 6 games this year.

With both bullpens ranked among the top 10, the game is poised to be a tight contest. The betting odds reflect this sentiment, with Boston at +100 and Toronto at -120, aligning expectations for a competitive matchup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Eric Lauer has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 18.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Typically, batters like Nathan Lukes who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Walker Buehler.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 17.5% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Walker Buehler's four-seam fastball usage has dropped by 5.4% from last season to this one (29% to 23.6%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Carlos Narvaez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 73 games (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 55 games (+14.05 Units / 23% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+22.00 Units / 275% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.09, Boston Red Sox 5.04

• Date: June 29, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eric Lauer - Blue Jays
  • Walker Buehler - Red Sox

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