Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 6/28/2025

On June 28, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Toronto Blue Jays in what promises to be a competitive American League East matchup at Fenway Park. The Red Sox enter this game with a record of 40-43, struggling to find their rhythm this season, while the Blue Jays boast a more favorable 44-37 record, positioning themselves above average in the standings.

In their previous matchup, the Blue Jays emerged victorious, further solidifying their standing in the division. The Red Sox are projected to start Lucas Giolito, who, despite a decent Win/Loss record of 3-1, ranks as the 151st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Giolito's 4.53 ERA indicates he has been more average than elite this season, and projections suggest he may allow around 3.1 earned runs, while striking out just 4.2 batters on average. His performance is not bolstered by an unfortunate tendency to yield 6.1 hits and 1.7 walks per game, both of which are concerning metrics.

Conversely, the Blue Jays will counter with Chris Bassitt, who has been a solid performer with a 3.61 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 7-3. Ranked 85th among starting pitchers, Bassitt is expected to pitch 5.8 innings today while allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs and striking out around 5.2 batters.

At the plate, the Red Sox's offense ranks 8th overall, showcasing their ability to generate runs, while their batting average ranks 14th. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, rank 4th in team batting average but sit at 19th in home runs, indicating an area where they could improve. With the Game Total set at a high 9.0 runs, bettors may find value in Boston’s implied team total of 4.29 runs, especially considering their offensive prowess compared to their recent struggles.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Given his large platoon split, Chris Bassitt encounters a tough challenge going up against 6 hitters in the projected offense of opposing handedness in today's matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Andres Gimenez is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen profiles as the 7th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

David Hamilton has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 87.6-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 85.6-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 78 games (+7.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 61 games (+11.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+6.70 Units / 44% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.19, Boston Red Sox 4.55

• Date: June 28, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Lucas Giolito - Red Sox

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