Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 6/27/2025

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 27, 2025, both teams find themselves in a competitive American League East matchup. The Red Sox, currently sitting at 40-42, are having an average season, while the Blue Jays, with a record of 43-37, are performing above average. Notably, the Red Sox bullpen ranks as the 3rd best in MLB, which could be a crucial factor in this series.

In their last outing, the Red Sox faced a tough loss, and they'll be looking to bounce back behind the projected start of Brayan Bello. Bello has been solid this year, with an impressive ERA of 3.31 across 12 starts, and he ranks as the 78th best starter in MLB according to advanced stats. However, he has a high xFIP of 4.21, indicating he may have been a bit lucky and could face challenges against a Blue Jays lineup that, while not striking out often, can be potent.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will counter with Jose Berrios, projected to have a below-average outing with an ERA of 3.51. Berrios has struggled, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB, and his xFIP of 4.26 suggests he might not be as reliable.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 10th in MLB in runs scored, while the Blue Jays sit at 12th. The Red Sox's ability to capitalize on Berrios' struggles could be key, especially considering they have an implied team total of 4.25 runs, which aligns with their robust offensive statistics. With both teams looking to secure a win, this matchup promises to be a closely contested battle at Fenway Park.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Typically, batters like Nathan Lukes who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Brayan Bello.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Because groundball hitters struggle against groundball pitchers, Brayan Bello (50.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 3 GB hitters in the opposition's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Abraham Toro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+8.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 48 of their last 79 games (+14.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+13.20 Units / 40% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.39, Boston Red Sox 4.55

• Date: June 27, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.