Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 4/13/2025

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays on April 13, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum after their previous matchup, where the Orioles edged out the Blue Jays with a tight 5-4 victory. The Orioles currently sit at 6-8, struggling this season, while the Blue Jays are slightly better at 8-7, marking an above-average start.

Cade Povich is projected to take the mound for the Orioles. Although he ranks as the 139th best starting pitcher in MLB, he has shown flashes of potential with a solid ERA of 3.48, despite a concerning 5.45 xERA that suggests he may be due for a rough patch. Povich's last outing was a mixed bag, where he allowed 12 hits but only gave up 1 earned run. He will need to improve on his projections of allowing 5.1 hits and 1.9 walks today if the Orioles hope to secure another win.

On the other side, Jose Berrios, though considered a below-average pitcher by many metrics, has had a decent start to the season with a 4.58 ERA. He pitched well in his last start, going 7 innings with only 1 earned run. However, he faces a challenge against an Orioles offense that, while ranking 18th in MLB, has the potential to capitalize on his high walk rate of 11.1%.

The Orioles' bullpen is a bright spot, ranking 5th in MLB, which could provide critical support if the game remains close. Despite their current struggles, the Orioles' implied team total of 4.50 runs suggests that betting markets expect a competitive game. With both teams looking to establish dominance in this American League East matchup, fans can expect an exciting showdown at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios has been given an above-average leash since the start of last season, recording 3.5 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Tyler O'Neill has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.7-mph to 92.9-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 2nd-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+5.15 Units / 37% ROI)
• Heston Kjerstad has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 36% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.53, Baltimore Orioles 4.89

• Date: April 13, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

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