Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/8/2024

• Date: September 8, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays
  • Chris Sale - Braves

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves and Toronto Blue Jays prepare for their matchup on September 8, 2024, the stakes are high, especially for the Braves, who are looking to rebound after a disappointing 9-5 loss to the Blue Jays the previous day. With a record of 77-65, the Braves are enjoying an above-average season and are currently positioned as a significant favorite with a moneyline of -270, reflecting a 71% implied win probability.

On the mound for the Braves will be Chris Sale, who ranks as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Sale has been dominant this season, boasting a 16-3 record and an impressive 2.46 ERA. In his last start, he pitched a complete game shutout, allowing no earned runs and striking out nine batters. His ability to generate strikeouts will be crucial against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 4th in fewest strikeouts.

Conversely, the Blue Jays, sitting at 68-75, are struggling this season and have been projected to start Yariel Rodriguez, who has a disappointing 1-6 record and an average ERA of 4.61. Rodriguez's high walk rate of 11.2% could be problematic against a Braves offense that ranks 13th overall and is known for its low walk rate, making it less likely they will capitalize on his control issues.

The projections suggest that the Braves will score around 4.57 runs, while the Blue Jays are projected to manage only 3.67 runs. With Sale's recent performance and the Braves' strong bullpen, they should be well-positioned to secure a victory and even the series against the Blue Jays.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Yariel Rodriguez has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale's four-seamer utilization has dropped by 5.3% from last year to this one (43.1% to 37.8%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.8-mph average to last season's 96.5-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 130 games (+35.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 58 away games (+9.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+14.35 Units / 50% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 3.67 vs Atlanta Braves 4.57

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.