Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/6/2024

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Max Fried - Braves

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 6, 2024, the stakes are clear. The Braves currently hold a record of 76-64, enjoying an above-average season, while the Blue Jays sit at 67-74, struggling with a below-average performance. This Interleague matchup marks the first game in the series, setting the stage for an intriguing clash.

Max Fried is set to take the mound for the Braves in this contest. Fried has been an elite performer this year, ranking as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB, with a solid ERA of 3.52. Despite his average projection of 5.9 innings pitched and the potential to allow 2.2 earned runs, Fried's high groundball rate (58 GB%) could play well against a Blue Jays offense that has struggled with power, ranking 27th in home runs this season.

On the other side, Kevin Gausman is set to start for the Blue Jays. Although he has a respectable record of 12-10, his ERA of 4.07 and an expected xERA of 4.82 suggest that he may have been riding some good fortune this season. Gausman projects to pitch 5.6 innings and allow around 3.0 earned runs, which doesn't bode well against a Braves lineup that ranks 13th best in MLB offensively.

With the Braves’ bullpen also considered the 9th best in MLB, bettors may find value in Atlanta's strong position. The Braves' implied team total sits at 4.50 runs, while the Blue Jays have a low implied total of 3.50 runs. Given the current form of both teams and Fried's elite status, the Braves appear poised for a strong showing as they look to cement their advantage in this series.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

In his last outing, Kevin Gausman was in good form and gave up 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 20% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Considering that flyball batters hold a notable edge over groundball pitchers, Max Fried and his 52.3% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough position in today's matchup being matched up with 1 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.8-mph average to last year's 96.5-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 59 games at home (+27.50 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 31 away games (+11.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 44 games (+37.15 Units / 84% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 3.96 vs Atlanta Braves 4.73

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