Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction & Picks 7/12/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yerry Rodriguez - Blue Jays
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Toronto Blue Jays at Chase Field on July 12, 2024, in an Interleague matchup featuring two struggling teams. Arizona sits at a middling 47-47, while Toronto comes in at 43-50. With both teams not currently in playoff contention, this game offers an opportunity for each to make strides toward a better season outcome.

Arizona will trot out right-hander Ryne Nelson, who has had an up-and-down year. Nelson's win-loss record stands at 6-6, and his ERA is a concerning 5.08###101. According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, Nelson's xFIP of 4.58 suggests he's been a bit unlucky and might perform better going forward. However, his low strikeout rate (15.3 K%) against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 5th in least strikeouts could spell trouble for the D-Backs.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will start Yerry Rodriguez, another righty who has struggled mightily this season. Rodriguez's 6.88 ERA and a WHIP of 1.56 over 12 bullpen appearances are concerning figures. Although his xFIP of 5.86 indicates some bad luck, projecting better outcomes remains a stretch. The Diamondbacks’ 10th-ranked offense, bolstered by their 8th-ranked team batting average, could make this a tough outing for Rodriguez.

Geraldo Perdomo has been the standout for Arizona over the past week, hitting .444 with an impressive 1.095 OPS. Arizona's offense as a whole stands a good chance of capitalizing on Rodriguez's struggles, especially given their implied team total of 4.71 runs.

Spencer Horwitz has been the Blue Jays' bright spot over the last seven games, hitting .350 with a .985 OPS. Despite this, Toronto's overall offensive rankings are dismal, coming in at 20th overall and 28th in home runs. Coupled with a 25th-ranked bullpen, the Blue Jays will have their work cut out for them.

Betting markets view this as a close game, with Arizona slightly favored at -130 moneyline, translating to a 54% implied win probability. THE BAT X leans similarly but gives a slight edge to the D-Backs with a 55% win probability. Expect a high-scoring affair, with both teams’ projections for combined runs sitting at a game total of 9.0.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Yerry Rodriguez's 2440-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 88th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Davis Schneider has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Toronto Blue Jays (19.7 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone team of batters of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Tallying 14.9 outs per start this year on average, Ryne Nelson places in the 20th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Ketel Marte has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.4-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 93.4-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Arizona Diamondbacks as a unit place 6th- overall in baseball this year when it comes to the maximum exit velocity of all of the baseballs their [HITTER}s have hit.

• If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he's never hit the ball hard, it's a sign of a lack of power.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games (+12.85 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 away games (+7.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.94 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.17

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