Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/14/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Toronto Blue Jays are set to clash in the third game of their interleague series on July 14, 2024, at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks, currently holding a 48-47 record, are having an average season, while the Blue Jays, at 43-51, are struggling below expectations.

Arizona will send right-hander Zac Gallen to the mound. Gallen, who ranks as the 13th best starting pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, has been solid this season with a 3.33 ERA over 14 starts. However, his 4.09 xERA suggests some regression may be on the horizon. Despite this, Gallen is expected to pitch 5.8 innings, allow 2.5 earned runs, and strike out 5.7 batters on average in today's game.

On the flip side, Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi will take the hill. The left-hander has a 4.00 ERA across 19 starts but has been unlucky as indicated by his 3.27 xFIP. Kikuchi is projected to go 5.1 innings, give up 2.8 earned runs, and strike out 5 batters on average.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks hold a significant edge. They rank 10th in overall offense, 8th in team batting average, but sit at a middling 17th in both home runs and stolen bases. In contrast, the Blue Jays' offense ranks 23rd overall, with particularly poor rankings in home runs (26th) and stolen bases (26th).

Eugenio Suarez has been a standout for Arizona over the past week, hitting .286 with a 1.157 OPS, 3 home runs, and 10 RBIs in six games. For Toronto, Ernie Clement has been hot, batting .429 with a 1.366 OPS, 2 home runs, and 8 RBIs in four games.

With Arizona being the betting favorite at -150, implying a 58% win probability, and Toronto at +130 with a 42% implied win probability, the Diamondbacks seem to have the upper hand. Given the stronger offense, a slightly better bullpen, and the advantage of playing at home, Arizona looks poised to take this matchup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Recording 92.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Yusei Kikuchi places in the 78th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Danny Jansen has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today, Daulton Varsho is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.1% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen has used his curveball 5% more often this season (27.7%) than he did last season (22.7%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Ketel Marte's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 93.5-mph now compared to just 91.1-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 19.3% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 57 games (+14.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 94 games (+10.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• George Springer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.40 Units / 44% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.23 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.85

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