Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers Prediction For 9/17/2024

• Date: September 17, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 17, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling in the standings with records of 71-79 and 72-78, respectively. With neither team in contention for a division title, this matchup offers a chance to reassess their rosters and strategies as the season winds down.

In their last outing, the Rangers faced the Seattle Mariners and suffered a disheartening 7-0 shutout, while the Blue Jays managed a narrow 3-2 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals. This stark contrast in recent performances may influence the momentum heading into this series opener.

On the mound, Texas is projected to start Nathan Eovaldi, who ranks as the 55th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Eovaldi has had a solid season with an 11-8 record and a respectable ERA of 3.67. However, his projections indicate he might allow 5.4 hits today, which raises concerns about potential scoring opportunities for the Blue Jays.

Chris Bassitt will take the ball for Toronto, coming off a season characterized by ups and downs. Ranked 63rd among starting pitchers, Bassitt's 4.20 ERA and 10-13 record suggest he's had challenges this year. Both pitchers are right-handed, and the projections indicate they will likely allow a similar number of earned runs.

Offensively, the Rangers have struggled, ranking 25th overall in MLB, while the Blue Jays sit in the middle of the pack at 15th. The projections suggest a close game, with the Rangers slightly favored to win, holding a moneyline of -140 and an implied probability of 56%. Despite their lackluster season, the Rangers' strong bullpen, ranked 6th, could play a crucial role in securing a victory in this matchup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt was in good form in his previous outing and put up 8 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last year's 92.1-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Compared to the average pitcher, Nathan Eovaldi has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 4.7 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Wyatt Langford has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 13.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly deflated relative to his 23.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Texas Rangers have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games at home (+14.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 39 away games (+11.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• Ernie Clement has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+4.10 Units / 102% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.01 vs Texas Rangers 4.03

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.