Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers Pick & Prediction – 9/18/2024

• Date: September 18, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays
  • Cody Bradford - Rangers

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

As the Texas Rangers host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 18, 2024, both teams are struggling through below-average seasons with identical records of 72-79. This matchup becomes particularly intriguing as the Rangers' Cody Bradford, who has been an average starting pitcher this year, takes the mound against Bowden Francis of the Blue Jays, who has been average by MLB standards.

The Rangers' offense ranks 25th overall in the league, showcasing a lack of power and consistency, which has hindered their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. In contrast, the Blue Jays sit in the middle of the pack at 15th in offensive ranking, presenting a more balanced lineup that could exploit the Rangers' pitching weaknesses.

Despite the Rangers' struggles, projections suggest a tilt in their favor. The leading MLB projection system indicates that the Rangers have a projected win probability of 57%, bolstered by Bradford's solid ERA of 3.97 despite his average overall performance. He’s projected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs, which aligns with his recent form. However, he’ll need to improve on his projected average of 5.2 hits allowed per game to secure a victory.

On the other hand, Bowden Francis brings an impressive ERA of 3.50 but relies heavily on luck, as evidenced by his xFIP of 4.20, suggesting that his performance may not be sustainable. The Blue Jays will depend on their best hitter, Davis Schneider, who has been hot lately, boasting a .467 average in the last week.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, the betting markets reflect a close contest, giving the Rangers a slight edge as they look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the projections that favor them in this critical game.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis's high utilization rate of his fastball (53% this year) is likely weakening his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Extreme groundball hitters like Nathan Lukes tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Cody Bradford.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 88th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Out of all SPs, Cody Bradford's fastball velocity of 89.2 mph is in the 5th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jonah Heim has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 5.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Texas Rangers offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games at home (+14.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 69 away games (+8.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• Davis Schneider has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 24 games (+8.80 Units / 34% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.06 vs Texas Rangers 4.37

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.