Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays Pick & Prediction – 9/20/2024

• Date: September 20, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Tyler Alexander - Rays

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the American League East matchup unfolds on September 20, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays at Tropicana Field in the first game of their series. The Rays, sitting at 75-78, face an average season, while the Blue Jays lag behind with a below-average 73-80 record.

Despite the Rays boasting the 3rd-best bullpen according to Power Rankings, their offense drastically underperforms. Ranking 26th in overall offense and 27th in both team batting average and home runs, the Rays heavily rely on their speed, standing 4th in stolen bases. Conversely, the Blue Jays present an average offense, ranked 15th overall, with a notable deficiency in power, sitting 25th in home runs. Their bullpen lags significantly at 23rd, contrasting sharply with Tampa Bay’s relief strength.

On the mound, Tyler Alexander, ranked 245th among approximately 350 starting pitchers, takes the lead for the Rays. Despite his 6-5 record, his ERA of 5.58 marks a challenging season. Yet, his xFIP of 4.73 suggests potential improvement due to previous bad luck. The Blue Jays counter with Jose Berrios, possessing a stronger 16-9 record and a solid ERA of 3.44, but his xFIP of 4.27 implies better fortune than skill this year. The matchup appears fairly balanced, with both starters projected to allow a similar number of earned runs. However, Berrios's moderate success against a high-strikeout Rays offense could provide a slight edge to Toronto.

While betting markets suggest a tight game, giving the Rays an implied 51% win probability, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, offers a different perspective, projecting a 51% win probability for the Blue Jays. As both teams seek to finish the season on a high note, this clash could unfold in numerous ways, with Toronto potentially having an edge, courtesy of Berrios's advantageous matchup against the strikeout-prone Rays.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios's 2158-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 25th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ernie Clement's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 85.1-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 75.4-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 9th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Tyler Alexander has recorded 14.4 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 12th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jose Siri has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .278 mark is considerably lower than his .320 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Christopher Morel).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 81 of their last 138 games (+20.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+8.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.55 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.34

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.