Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants Pick For 7/10/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: July 10, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Logan Webb - Giants

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants are set to host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 10, 2024, at Oracle Park in the second game of their interleague series. Both teams are having below average seasons, with the Giants holding a 44-47 record and the Blue Jays sitting at 41-49. Despite their struggles, this matchup features a compelling pitching duel between Logan Webb and Chris Bassitt.

Logan Webb, the Giants' right-hander, is having a standout season with a 3.09 ERA, ranking him as the 11th best starting pitcher in baseball according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. However, his 4.11 xERA suggests he's been a bit fortunate and may regress. Webb's high groundball rate (58%) could neutralize the Blue Jays' lack of power, as they rank 28th in team home runs. Additionally, Webb's low walk rate (5.6%) might mitigate Toronto’s patience at the plate, as the Blue Jays are 6th in walks drawn.

Chris Bassitt, the Blue Jays' right-hander, brings a solid 3.43 ERA into the game and is ranked 59th among starting pitchers by THE BAT X. His 4.21 xFIP indicates some luck as well. Bassitt's projections for this game are average, with 5.7 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed. However, his control issues could be a factor, as he projects to allow 2.1 walks.

Offensively, the Giants rank 14th in batting average and 20th in home runs, while the Blue Jays rank 22nd and 28th, respectively. The Giants have the edge in bullpen strength, ranking 2nd in the Power Rankings compared to the Blue Jays’ 25th.

In their last game, the Giants' Michael Conforto has been on fire, posting a .308 batting average and a 1.207 OPS over the past week. For the Blue Jays, George Springer has been equally impressive, batting .333 with a 1.074 OPS over the same period.

With the Giants favored at -150, their projected win probability of 58% aligns with their superior bullpen and Webb's elite status on the mound. The Blue Jays, as underdogs at +130, face an uphill battle given their offensive struggles and bullpen woes.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 7.2 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Daulton Varsho has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Daulton Varsho pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Logan Webb has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.8% less often this season (55.9%) than he did last year (62.7%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jorge Soler's average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 89.3-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 81.3-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 59 games (+12.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+9.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 3.45 vs San Francisco Giants 4.23

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