Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics Best Bet – 6/7/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: June 7, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Hogan Harris - Athletics

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

In an American League matchup, the Oakland Athletics will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Coliseum on June 7, 2024. The Athletics are the home team for this game, and they are hoping to turn their season around after a disappointing 25-39 record. On the other hand, the Blue Jays have had a below-average season with a 30-32 record.

The Athletics are projected to start left-handed pitcher Hogan Harris, who has had a decent season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Harris is ranked as the #250 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, the Blue Jays are expected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Bassitt, who has been performing above average this season and is ranked #66 in the Power Rankings.

Harris has started one game this year and has an ERA of 3.14, which is great. However, his 4.17 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could perform worse going forward. Bassitt, on the other hand, has started 12 games with a win/loss record of 6-6 and an ERA of 4.13, which is above average.

Based on the projections, Harris is expected to pitch around 4.5 innings and allow an average of 2.4 earned runs, which is below average. He is also projected to strike out 3.4 batters and allow 4.4 hits and 1.9 walks on average, which are not favorable numbers. Bassitt, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 6.0 innings and allow an average of 2.5 earned runs. He is also expected to strike out 6.0 batters but allow 5.2 hits and 1.8 walks on average.

In terms of offense, the Athletics have struggled this season, ranking as the #25 best offense in MLB. They have the worst team batting average in the league, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th in MLB. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have a slightly better offense, ranking #21 in MLB. They have a strong team batting average, ranking 5th, but their home run and stolen bases rankings are average.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Athletics have the best bullpen in MLB according to our Power Rankings, while the Blue Jays rank 17th. This could give the Athletics an advantage in the later innings of the game.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The Athletics are considered underdogs with a current moneyline of +115 and an implied win probability of 44%, while the Blue Jays are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%.

Overall, the Blue Jays have the edge in this matchup with a better record and a higher-ranked starting pitcher. However, the Athletics have a strong bullpen, which could keep the game close. It will be interesting to see if the Athletics' struggling offense can find a way to produce against Bassitt.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt has relied on his four-seam fastball 5.3% less often this season (4%) than he did last year (9.3%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Justin Turner is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Toronto Blue Jays hitters as a unit rank near the cellar of Major League Baseball since the start of last season ( 8th-worst) when it comes to their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Among every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Oakland Athletics.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

This season, there has been a decline in Miguel Andujar's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.63 ft/sec last year to 25.74 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

J.D. Davis has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-deepest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.20 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 61 games (+9.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Max Schuemann has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games at home (+8.00 Units / 200% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.59 vs Oakland Athletics 3.84

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