Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees Prediction For 8/2/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on August 2, 2024, this American League East matchup carries significance amid their respective standings. The Yankees, boasting a record of 65-45, are having a stellar season and currently sit atop the division. In contrast, the Blue Jays are struggling with a 50-59 record and rank as one of the lower teams in the league.

The Yankees are particularly confident after a strong performance from their bullpen against the Philadelphia Phillies, while the Blue Jays have been trying to find consistency in their lineup.

Marcus Stroman is projected to take the mound for the Yankees. Despite being ranked 137th out of approximately 350 pitchers according to advanced stats, Stroman's 3.64 ERA indicates he has had some good fortune this season. However, he has struggled with walks and hits allowed, projecting to give up an average of 5.8 hits and 1.7 walks today. This could be a concern against a Blue Jays lineup that, while not the most powerful, has shown potential with hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

On the other side, Kevin Gausman will pitch for Toronto. Gausman has been more effective, holding a 4.44 ERA along with a ranking of 70th among pitchers. He projects to allow 3.3 earned runs and has a good chance to limit the Yankees' ability to draw walks, which has been one of their strengths this season.

With the Yankees’ offense sitting at 1st in MLB and the Blue Jays ranked 20th, the disparity becomes evident. Although the Yankees are favored in this matchup, the projections suggest that the game will remain competitive, especially if Gausman can harness his control effectively. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Gausman's higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (59.3 vs. 50.8% last year) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Joey Loperfido is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen projects as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman's 89.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.5-mph fall off from last season's 90.9-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

This season, Giancarlo Stanton has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.1 mph compared to last year's 95.2 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Today, Benjamin Rice is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.7% rate (88th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 51 games (+19.20 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 54 games (+19.45 Units / 33% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+9.30 Units / 16% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.53 vs New York Yankees 5.52

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