Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees Pick & Prediction – 8/4/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: August 4, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays
  • Gerrit Cole - Yankees

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to take on the Toronto Blue Jays on August 4, 2024, at Yankee Stadium, the stakes are palpable. The Yankees enter this game with a solid record of 66-46, firmly positioned in the race for the American League East. In contrast, the Blue Jays stand at 51-60, struggling to find their footing this season. In their previous matchup, the Yankees secured a convincing 8-3 victory over the Blue Jays on August 3, showcasing their offensive prowess.

On the mound, Gerrit Cole is projected to start for the Yankees. Despite a rocky outing in his last start where he allowed six earned runs, Cole has the advantage of facing a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 27th in home runs this season. This matchup favors Cole, a high-flyball pitcher, as the Blue Jays have only managed 94 home runs this year, the 4th least in MLB. Cole's Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) suggests he’s been unlucky and could perform better going forward.

Opposing him is Yariel Rodriguez, who has struggled with his control. He projects to pitch just four innings on average, with a concerning walk rate of 13.6%. This could spell trouble against a Yankees offense that leads the league in walks and boasts a high team total of 5.70 runs for this game. The projections paint a favorable picture for the Yankees, who are expected to score 5.82 runs on average.

With the Yankees' powerful lineup, led by Aaron Judge, and the struggles of the Blue Jays’ hitters, this matchup heavily leans in favor of New York as they look to continue their winning ways.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Among all SPs, Yariel Rodriguez's fastball spin rate of 2399 rpm ranks in the 81st percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Davis Schneider has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Toronto Blue Jays have done a good job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 14.5° angle is among the highest in MLB this year (#10 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Compared to the average starter, Gerrit Cole has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 5.6 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Giancarlo Stanton has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.1-mph average to last year's 95.2-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The 10.8% Barrel% of the New York Yankees ranks them as the #1 team in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 54 games (+22.20 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 53 games (+19.45 Units / 33% ROI)
• Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 21 games at home (+7.35 Units / 35% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.38 vs New York Yankees 5.84

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.