Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins Best Bet – 8/30/2024

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on August 30, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Twins, currently 72-61, are enjoying an above-average season and sit in a solid position, while the Blue Jays, with a record of 66-70, are having a more pedestrian campaign. This matchup marks the first game in their series, and the stakes are particularly high for the Twins as they aim to get back on track after a loss to the Atlanta Braves.

In the last week, Matt Wallner has been leading the charge for the Twins offensively, batting an impressive .381. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have relied heavily on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has been their standout performer, hitting .480 in the same timeframe. This offensive battle could play a crucial role in the game, especially given the Twins’ ranking as the 6th best offense in MLB compared to the Blue Jays’ 16th.

On the mound, Pablo Lopez is projected to start for the Twins. With a 12-8 record and ranking as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, he’s expected to deliver a solid performance. Lopez’s 3.36 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky this season, and he projects to strike out 6.1 batters while allowing 2.5 earned runs and 5.4 hits on average. In contrast, Kevin Gausman will take the hill for the Blue Jays. Although he has a respectable ERA of 4.10, his projections indicate a challenging outing, as he is expected to allow 3.0 earned runs and 5.6 hits.

The leading MLB projection system suggests the Twins are favored to win, with a projected team total of 4.76 runs. Given their strong offensive capabilities and Lopez's elite status on the mound, the Twins are positioned well to take this game against the Blue Jays, who will need to find a way to overcome their recent struggles at the plate.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to average, Kevin Gausman has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 8.7 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Addison Barger has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Joey Loperfido hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez has relied on his four-seam fastball 6.2% more often this year (40.7%) than he did last season (34.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

This season, Matt Wallner has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 100.5 mph compared to last year's 97.1 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Minnesota Twins have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Edouard Julien, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 37 games at home (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+9.65 Units / 16% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.44 vs Minnesota Twins 4.8

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.