Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels Best Bet – 8/14/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: August 14, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels and the Toronto Blue Jays are set to clash on August 14, 2024, at Angel Stadium in what is shaping up to be an important matchup for both teams. With the Angels sitting at 52-67, they are having a tough season, while the Blue Jays, at 55-64, are struggling as well. Notably, the Angels recently faced off against the Blue Jays last night, with the Blue Jays picking up a convincing victory on the road.

On the pitching front, the Angels will send Tyler Anderson to the mound. Anderson has had a mixed year with a Win/Loss record of 9-10 and an impressive 2.99 ERA. However, his 4.76 xFIP suggests he may not be as effective going forward, indicating he could be due for some regression. In contrast, the Blue Jays will counter with Jose Berrios, who holds a record of 10-9 and a solid 3.97 ERA. Berrios, however, has been less reliable according to the projections, which label him as a below-average pitcher.

When it comes to offensive matchups, the Angels rank 24th in the league, while the Blue Jays fare slightly better at 21st. However, there's an interesting dynamic at play: Tyler Anderson's low strikeout rate (18.8 K%) faces off against the Blue Jays' low strikeout offense, giving them a potential edge.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the betting lines are even, indicating a competitive game is expected. Currently, both teams have an implied team total of 4.25 runs, adding to the anticipation of what could be a tightly contested affair. The Angels will rely on their offensive strength, as Zach Neto has been hot lately, while the Blue Jays are looking to capitalize on any mistakes from Anderson.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to the average starter, Jose Berrios has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 3.1 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Alejandro Kirk is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Today, Davis Schneider is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.4% rate (83rd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 7 opposite-handed hitters in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Zach Neto has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.7-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 88.8-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be best to expect better numbers for the Los Angeles Angels offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 85 games (+6.90 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 63 games (+16.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jo Adell has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.60 Units / 30% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.07 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.82

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