Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals Pick & Prediction – 4/23/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Overview

• Date: April 23, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Michael Wacha - Royals
• Run Line: Blue Jays -1.5 135, Royals 1.5 -155
• Money Line: Blue Jays -125, Royals 105
• Total (Over/Under): 8.5

Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 53%
• Kansas City Royals - 47%

Projected Win %:

• Toronto Blue Jays - 54.47%
• Kansas City Royals - 45.53%

Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Game Preview & Prediction

On April 23, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays at Kauffman Stadium. As the home team, the Royals will look to continue their successful season with a record of 13-10. The Blue Jays, as the away team, also boast a 13-10 record and are having a good season. This American League matchup promises an exciting showdown between two competitive teams.

The Royals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Michael Wacha, who has been performing at an average level according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Wacha has started four games this season, with a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 3.75. He is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, striking out 4.0 batters, and giving up 5.6 hits and 1.7 walks per game.

The Blue Jays will counter with right-handed pitcher Kevin Gausman, who has been ranked as the #36 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings. Gausman has started four games this season, with a win/loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 8.16. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Gausman is projected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, striking out 6.1 batters, and giving up 5.7 hits and 1.5 walks per game.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Royals rank #14 in MLB overall, while the Blue Jays rank #16. The Royals have a slightly higher team batting average, ranking #19 compared to the Blue Jays' #5 ranking. However, the Blue Jays have a better rank in team home runs, ranking #15 compared to the Royals' #26 ranking. Both teams have an average rank in stolen bases, with the Royals ranking #4 and the Blue Jays ranking #19.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Blue Jays have a higher rank, coming in at #7 compared to the Royals' #17 rank. This suggests that the Blue Jays may have an advantage in late-game situations.

Based on the current odds, the Blue Jays have a slightly higher implied win probability of 52% compared to the Royals' 48%. However, the Royals have an average implied team total of 4.15 runs, while the Blue Jays have a slightly higher implied team total of 4.35 runs.

Overall, this matchup between the Royals and the Blue Jays promises to be a closely contested game. With both teams having good seasons and solid starting pitchers on the mound, it will be interesting to see which team comes out on top.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

When assessing his strikeout talent, Kevin Gausman projects as the 20th-best starter in MLB currently, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Davis Schneider has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen projects as the 7th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (39.3% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 64 games at home (+12.82 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 77 of their last 138 games (+10.74 Units / 7% ROI)

Blue Jays vs Royals Prediction: Blue Jays 5.12 - Royals 4.4

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.