Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers Pick & Prediction – 5/24/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alek Manoah - Blue Jays
  • Matt Manning - Tigers

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

In an American League matchup, the Detroit Tigers will take on the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park on May 24, 2024. The Tigers, who are having a below-average season with a record of 23-27, will look to bounce back after a tough loss against the Blue Jays in their last game. The Blue Jays, with a record of 23-26, are also having a below-average season and will aim to continue their winning streak.

The Tigers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Matt Manning, who has a record of 0-1 this season. Manning's ERA stands at 4.88, which is below average, but his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other hand, the Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Alek Manoah, who has a record of 1-1 and an impressive ERA of 3.00. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky and may regress in future outings.

In their last game, the Tigers faced the Blue Jays and suffered a 9-1 loss. The Tigers' offense, which ranks as the 24th best in MLB, struggled to produce runs, while the Blue Jays' offense, ranked 21st in the league, had a solid performance. The Tigers' bullpen is considered the 10th best in MLB, while the Blue Jays' bullpen ranks 12th.

The Tigers' best hitter this season has been Riley Greene, who has recorded 32 runs and 9 home runs with a .778 OPS. Over the last seven games, Colt Keith has emerged as their top hitter, with a .500 batting average and a 1.122 OPS. The Blue Jays' standout hitter has been Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with a .282 batting average and a .779 OPS. Daniel Vogelbach has been their top performer over the last seven games, hitting .444 with a 1.333 OPS.

In terms of team rankings, the Tigers' offense ranks 27th in MLB in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. The Blue Jays' offense, on the other hand, ranks 5th in batting average, 15th in home runs, and 19th in stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Tigers have an average implied team total of 4.15 runs, while the Blue Jays have a higher implied team total of 4.35 runs. THE BAT X projects the Tigers to score an average of 4.39 runs, while the Blue Jays are projected to score 4.83 runs.

With a close projected win probability of 48% according to THE BAT X, this game is expected to be a closely contested matchup. Both teams will be looking to capitalize on their strengths and improve their overall performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Alek Manoah has used his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 57.2% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

This year, there has been a decline in Danny Jansen's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.12 ft/sec last year to 26.49 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Toronto Blue Jays (20.9 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone set of hitters of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

In his previous game started, Matt Manning wasn't on when it came to striking batters out and was only able to tally 1 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.282) may lead us to conclude that Javier Baez has had bad variance on his side this year with his .207 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Detroit's 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #24 club in Major League Baseball since the start of last season by this metric.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.20 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+6.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• Matt Vierling has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.40 Units / 51% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.74 vs Detroit Tigers 4.4

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